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Oscar Predictions

Picture: Babel (alt. The Departed)
Directing: Martin Scorsese (The Departed)
Actor: Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)
Actress: Helen Mirren (The Queen)
Actor in a Supporting Role: Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls)
Actress in a Supporting Role: Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)
Writing (Original Screenplay): Little Miss Sunshine
Writing (Adapted Screenplay): The Departed
Foreign Language Film: The Lives of Others
Documentary Feature: An Inconvenient Truth
Animated Feature Film: Cars
Documentary Short: Recycled Life
Short Film (Animated): The Little Matchgirl
Short Film (Live Action): West Bank Story
Film Editing: Babel
Art Direction: Pan's Labyrinth
Cinematography: Children of Men
Costume Design: Dreamgirls
Makeup: Pan's Labyrinth
Score: The Queen
Song: "I Need To Wake Up" (An Inconvenient Truth)
Sound Editing: Letters From Iwo Jima
Sound Mixing: Dreamgirls
Visual Effects: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

Arun Awards

In order to pass the time while this year's ballot fills up, I thought I'd put up my awards (?) from previous years. So far, we have 2005, 2004 and 2003. There's more to come. Also, remember to comment: Do you disagree with some of my choices? Hate some of the nominees? What would your ballot look like?

2005
2004
2003

Facts About the Nominations

• Dreamgirls managed 8 noms, yet was snubbed for Best Picture. While this has occoured in the past to films like Close Encounters of the Third Kind and They Shoot Horses, Don't They?, both those films recieved Best Director nominations and neither was the nomination leader of their respective years. Dreamgirls is the most nominated film this year, making this first time in history that a non-best picture nominee led the nomination count.
• In terms of total nominations, this is the weakest Best Picture line-up since 1932 when there were only 9 categories. This also the first time since 1952 that no Best Picture nominee recieved more than 7 nods.
  
• This is the first time since 1927 (!!), the first year of the Academy Awards, that not one single Best Actor nominee is from a Best Picture nominee. Also, with the exception of Blood Diamond, the other 4 films nominated for Best Actor recieved their only nomination in that category.
  
• With his eighth acting nom Peter O'Toole, if he were to lose, will beat his tie with Richard Burton and become the most nominated actor to never win a competitive Oscar (he recieved an honourary award in 2002)
• With her nomination for Little Children, Kate Winslet becomes the youngest actor ever to recieve 5 nominations. She is 31 years old, 2 years younger than previous record holder, Olivia De Havilland, who was 33. Winslet has only made 19 films, Havilland had made 33 by that time. This also means Winslet has been nominated for 25% of her filmography.

• With her 14th nomination Meryl Streep continues her reign as the most nominated actor in Oscar history.
• Judi Dench recieved her 6th nomination in only 10 years. Since 1997 only 1999, 2002, 2003 and 2004 have been Dench-less years.
• Alan Arkin recieved his first nomination since 1968, 38 years ago.
• If you add up the grosses for all of the film's nominated for Best Picture: Babel ($24), The Departed ($122), Letters from Iwo Jima ($2), Little Miss Sunshine ($60), The Queen ($36) they all total $244 million -- the same number as Cars ($244) did in the US alone. Letters is also one of the lowest grossing, if not the lowest grossing Best Picture nominee (at the time of recieving nominations) in the last 20 odd years.
• Penelope Cruz is the first Spanish actress to be nominated. Rinko Kikuchi is the first Asian actress to be nominated since Miyoshi Umeki won for Sayanora in 1957.

• Dreamgirls is the first live action film to recieve 3 Best Original Song nominations. Two animated films can lay claim to the same record: The Lion King in 1994 and Beauty and the Beast in 1991.
• Kevin O'Connell, nommed for sound mixing in Apocalypto, scores his 19th nom. He furthers his status as the Academy's most nominated individual who, so far, hasn't won. Distant runners-up are composer Alex North and art director Roland Anderson, at 15 each.
  

Final Oscar Predictions

The nominees come out tomorrow evening, so here's my final stab. Sorry about the lack of commentary but I'm tired.

Best Picture
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

Best Director
Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
Clint Eastwood, Letters From Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Alejandro Gonzales Innaritu, Babel
Martin Scorsese, The Departed

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole, Venus
Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

Best Actress
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet, Little Children

Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children
Djimon Honsou, Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson, The Departed

Best Supporting Actress
Adriana Barazza, Babel
Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Departed
The Devil Wears Prada
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal
Thank You For Smoking

Best Original Screenplay
Babel
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen
United 93
Volver

Best Animated Feature
Cars
Happy Feet
Over the Hedge

Best Cinematography
Apocalypto, Dean Semler
Babel, Rodrigo Prieto
Children of Men, Emmanuel Lubezki
The Good Shepherd, Robert Richardson
The Illusionist, Dick Pope

Best Costume Design
The Black Dahlia, Jenny Beavan
The Curse of the Golden Flower, Chung Mang Yee
Dreamgirls, Sharon Davies
Marie-Antoinette, Milena Canonero
The Painted Veil, Ruth Myres

Best Art Direction
The Curse of the Golden Flower
Children of Men
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
Pan's Labyrinth

Best Film Editing
Babel
The Departed
Dreamgirls
The Queen
United 93

Best Makeup
Apocalypto
Pan's Labyrinth
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

Best Original Score
Apocalypto, James Newton Howard
Babel, Gustavo Santaolalla
The DaVinci Code, Hans Zimmer
The Illusionist, Philip Glass
The Painted Veil, Alexandre Desplat

Best Original Song
Bobby for 'Never Gonna Break My Faith'
Borat for 'O Kazakhstan'
Dreamgirls for 'Listen'
Happy Feet for 'Song of the Heart'
An Inconvenient Truth for 'I Need to Wake Up'

Best Sound Design
Blood Diamond
The Departed
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
alternate: Babel

Best Sound Editing
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Cars
Flags of Our Fathers
Superman Returns
Poseidon

Best Visual Effects
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Superman Returns
X3: The Last Stand

Globes Rundown

Well, it seems as if it were a night of NO surprises. I scored 8/13 in my predictions which is not bad and 4 of my alternate picks made it in (the only category I completely missed was Best Picture-Drama). Dreamgirls picked up some steam, coming in with the most wins, 3, for Best Picture-Comedy/Musical, Best Supporting Actor (Eddie Murphy and Best Supporting Actress (Jennifer Hudson). The Queen won two for Helen Mirren and Peter Morgan's screenplay. Everything else won one. Including Best Picture-Drama winner Babel, a win that came off looking more like a consolation prize for receiving the most nominations, rather than anything else. While the TV winners came out with some surprises (Yaay Ugly Betty and America Ferrera! Boo Grey's Anatomy!) including a wonderful makeup win for Emily Blunt (which I will of course pretend was really for The Devil Wears Prada), there weren't any shockers for the films. However, the lack of anything even near a sweep means that this year's Best Picture race is still wide open with The Departed, Dreamgirls, Little Miss Sunshine, Babel and even The Queen all looking like contenders for the big prize. And that never happens.

Best Win of the Night: It was a foregone conclusion but nothing makes me quite as happy as hearing Marty Scorsese's name read out at these things. I literally shouted out loud.

Best Speech of the Night: Without a doubt, Meryl Streep. America Ferrera and Sacha Baron Cohen put in some good tries. Peter Morgan's speech was wonderful but it was ALL Meryl. What a woman. I loved the 'Oh shut up, its not that long!'.

Best Dressed: Cameron Diaz was the only person who looked awful, with everyone else looking pretty hot. It amazes me how sexy Helen Mirren is at 61 but the cake has to go to Rachel Weisz. Why couldn't she look this hot last year when she was winning everything? Salma Hayek, Angelina Jolie, Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Evangeline Lilly and Kate Winslet were also in various stages of hotness.

Most Drunk: An award that can only be given at the globes. This is year was a disappointment here. No one was OFF their face like, say, Sharon Stone or Jonathan Rhys-Meyers has been in the past and during the cut aways a lot of people looked pissed off. Particularly Diddy when in conversation with Jay-Z.

Table that Looked like the Most Fun?: Well, if you'd asked me before I'd have said the Fox table were Sacha Baron Cohen and Meryl Streep were seated would've been the best, but there simply weren't enough shenanigans to compete. I'd say its close between the Ugly Betty table, where everyone seemed to have a good time and genuinely like each other and the Warren Beatty/Annette Bening/Jack Nicholson table that was the centre of attention the whole night through.

The winners you ask?

Best Picture, Drama: Babel

Best Actor, Drama: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

Best Picture Musical/Comedy: Dreamgirls

Best Actor Musical/Comedy: Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat

Best Director: Martin Scorsese, The Departed

Best Score: The Painted Veil

Foreign Film: Letters From Iwo Jima

Best Screenplay: The Queen

Best Supporting Actor - Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls

Best Actress, Musical/Comedy - Meryl Streep, Devil Wears Prada

Best Animated Film: Cars

Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls

Original Song: Prince for 'Song From the Heart', Happy Feet

TV:

Best Actress, Comedy: America Ferrera, Ugly Betty

Best Comedy Series, TV: Ugly Betty

Best Actor, Comedy: Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock

Best Actress, Mini Series: Helen Mirren, Elizabeth I

Best Actor, Mini Series: Bill Nighy, Gideon's Daughter

Best Mini Series: Elizabeth I

Best Actor, Drama: Hugh Laurie, House

Best Supporting Actress - Mini Series: Emily Blunt, Gideon's Daughter

Best Actress, TV, Drama: Kyra Sedgwick, The Closer

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television: Jeremy Irons, Elizabeth I

Golden Globe Predictions

The Globes are on tomorrow morning, so I felt the need...

Best Picture-Drama: The Departed
Alternate: The Queen

Best Picture-Comedy/Musical: Little Miss Sunshine
Alternate: Dreamgirls

Best Director: Martin Scorsese, The Departed

Best Actor-Drama: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
Alternate: Peter O'Toole, Venus

Best Actress-Drama: Helen Mirren, The Queen

Best Actor-Comedy/Musical: Sacha Baron Cohen, Borat

Best Actress-Comedy/Musical: Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada

Best Supporting Actor: Jack Nicholson, The Departed
Alternate: Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls

Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls

Best Animated Feature: Happy Feet
Alternate: Cars

Best Foreign Language Film: Letters From Iwo Jima
Alternate: Pan's Labyrinth/Volver

Best Screenplay: The Queen
Alternate: Babel

Best Original Score: Babel
Alternate: The Painted Veil

Best Original Song: Happy Feet

Awards Update

Helen Mirren is nominated thrice for this year's Golden Globes for The Queen and, for the television films, Prime Suspect 6 and Elizabeth I

Much has happened since my last update, with the big critics groups having announced their winners and the announcement of the Golden Globe nominations last night. Critics group wise, all you need to know is that everyone is split on the Best Picture race: the NY critics went for United 93 (which gives director Paul Greengrass a large push to get the lone director slot), LA critics repeated the Clint love for Letters but gave Greengrass their Best Director award. Scorsese took Best Director in New York. The Boston critics went crazy for The Departed and, surprisingly, gave their Best Supporting Actor award, not to Nicholson but, to co-star Mark Wahlberg (who's looking better and better for an Oscar nom). The Queen also recieved a major boost from the LA critics coming runner-up for Best Picture and winning awards for Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Screenplay and Best Original Score. Speaking of The Queen, Helen Mirren has now won every single Best Actress award bestowed so far. Forest Whitaker's no slouch either, his performance as Idi Amin in The Last King of Scotland has won all but one prize. That was a minor critics group but the winner also tied with Whitaker for the LA Best Actor prize: Sacha Baron Cohen in Borat, who could turn out to be a major spoiler.

Now that's done, let's move onto the Golden Globe nominees:

Best Picture-Drama
Babel
Bobby
The Departed
Little Children
The Queen

The Departed and The Queen lead the race here with Bobby and Little Children being the major surprises. Could Bobby suddenly gather up steam and overcome tepid reviews. It's doubtful and we should all be thankful for that. Babel also did well gaining the most nominations (7), but it seems like it's more of an HFPA film rather than one the Academy will eventually go for.

Best Picture-Comedy/Musical
Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Little Miss Sunshine
Thank You For Smoking

Pretty good category. No surprises but it is a strong lineup, nevertheless. Dreamgirls should bag this one easily seeing as it's this year's big Oscar dog but the shocking Best Director snub tells me either Borat or LMS could upset.

Best Director
Clint Eastwood, Flags of Our Fathers
Clint Eastwood, Letters From Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears, The Queen
Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu, Babel
Martin Scorsese, The Departed

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!! FUCK FUCK FUCK on Eastwood double nom. So. Fucking. Unnecessary. Marty will probably win and the Frears nom just adds more steam to The Queen's rather formidable engine.

Best Actor-Drama
Leonardo DiCaprio in Blood Diamond
Leonardo DiCaprio in The Departed
Peter O'Toole in Venus
Will Smith in The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker in The Last King of Scotland

It's nice to see Leo get double nominations here but it worries me. All this indecision between his two films means that his chances of getting an Oscar nomination are deteriorating. And damnit, HFPA, is it too much to fucking ask for you to nominate Ryan Gosling? assholes. At least, his Oscar hopes aren't too damaged.

Best Actor-Comedy/Musical
Sacha Baron Cohen in Borat
Johnny Depp in Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Aaron Eckhart in Thank You For Smoking
Chiwitel Ejiofor in Kinky Boots
Will Ferrell in Stranger Than Fiction

Boring category: Depp and Ferrell's noms are dull and unimaginative. Good for Eckhart-he's a brilliant actor. Cohen takes this in a cakewalk.

Best Actress-Drama
Penolope Cruz in Volver
Judi Dench in Notes on a Scandal
Maggie Gyllenhaal in Sherrybaby
Helen Mirren in The Queen
Kate Winslet in Little Children

Replace either Gyllenhaal or Winslet with Streep and you've got a good idea of who the final Best Actress lineup will be. This award already has Dame Mirren's name on it (the three nominations she recieved only helps her case). Unless the other Dame can get some last minute traction for, what is supposed to be, the best performance of her career.

Best Actress-Comedy/Musical
Annette Bening in Running with Scissors
Toni Collete in Little Miss Sunshine
Beyonce Knowles in Dreamgirls
Meryl Streep in The Devil Wears Prada
Renee Zellweger in Miss Potter

Golden Globe, meet your new owner, Meryl Streep. This is hers, and deservingly so. Unless, he HFPA give into their usual starfucking and give it to Beyonce, eh. Love that Toni Collete got in but the Breslin snub is puzzling.

Best Supporting Actor
Ben Affleck in Hollywoodland
Eddie Murphy in Dreamgirls
Jack Nicholson in The Departed
Brad Pitt in Babel
Mark Wahberg in The Departed

Wierdly star-packed lineup. THRILLED that Wahlberg got in, he stole every fucking scene he was in. The Michael Sheen snub means nothing since Miramax submitted him in lead here and the LAFCA win has pretty much solidified his nom.

Best Supporting Actress
Adriana Barazza in Babel
Cate Blanchett in Notes on a Scandal
EMILY FUCKING BLUNT IN THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA!!!!!!!!!!
Jennifer Hudson in Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi in Babel

YES! YES! YES! YES! YES!!!!!!!!!! Cannot believe they actually went for Blunt's wonderful work. Streep wasn't the only one working her ass off and it's good to see Blunt get the recognition after critics pretty much ignored her. The rest of the category is a snorefest and I wouldn't worry about the snub for Catherine O'Hara for For Your Consideration. After all both Amy Adams and Catherine Keener were ignored here last year and O'Hara's pretty much in the same position.

Screenplay
Babel
The Departed
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal
The Queen

Again, the Little Children love is surprising. All in all, this is a good category.

Best Foreign Language Film
Apocalypto
Letters From Iwo Jima
The Lives of Others
Pan's Labyrinth
Volver

The fact that Gibson and Eastwood were allowed to pass of their films in this category simply because their in a dead and foreign language, respectively, is utter bullshit. Letters will win unless the HFPA is feeling adventurous. Volver is divine and the other two films are said to be two of the best, if not the best, films of the year.

That's all for now, folks. Music year-end picks comes tomorrow.

Best Picture of Every Year: 2005 - 1927

05: Brokeback Mountain (Ang Lee)

04: Before Sunset (Richard Linklater)

03: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (Peter Jackson)

02: Far From Heaven (Todd Haynes)

01: In the Mood for Love (Wong Kar-Wai)

00: Dancer in the Dark (Lars von Trier)

99: All About My Mother (Pedro Almodóvar)

98: Festen (Thomas Vintenberg)

97: Taste of Cherry (Abbas Kiarostami)

96: Fargo (The Coen Brothers)

95: Dead Man Walking (Tim Robbins)

94: Pulp Fiction (Quentin Tarantino)

93: The Piano (Jane Campion)

92: Unforgiven (Clint Eastwood)

91: Thelma & Louise (Ridley Scott)

90: GoodFellas (Martin Scorsese)

89: Do the Right Thing (Spike Lee)

88: Wings of Desire (Wim Wenders)

87: Broadcast News (James L. Brooks)

86: Blue Velvet (David Lynch)

85: Ran (Akira Kurosawa)

84: Amadeus (Milos Forman)

83: Fanny and Alexander (Ingmar Bergman)

82: Blade Runner (Ridley Scott)

81: Body Heat (Lawrence Kasdan)

80: Raging Bull (Martin Scorsese)

79: Apocalypse Now (Francis Ford Coppola)/Manhattan (Woody Allen)

78: Days of Heaven (Terrence Malick)

77: Annie Hall (Woody Allen)

76: Taxi Driver (Martin Scorsese)

75: Dog Day Afternoon (Sidney Lumet)

74: Chinatown (Roman Polanski)

73: Solaris (Andrei Tarkovsky)

72: The Godfather (Francis Ford Coppola)

71: A Clockwork Orange (Stanley Kubrick)

70: M*A*S*H (Robert Altman)

69: Once Upon a Time in the West (Sergio Leone)

68: 2001: A Space Odyssey (Stanley Kubrick)

67: Persona (Ingmar Bergman)

66: Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf? (Mike Nichols)

65: The Umbrellas of Cherbourg (Jacques Demy)

64: Dr. Strangelove Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb (Stanley Kubrick)

63: 8½ (Federico Fellini)

62: Jules and Jim (Francois Truffaut)

61: Breakfast at Tiffany’s (Blake Edwards)

60: Breathless (Jean-Luc Goddard)

59: Some Like it Hot (Billy Wilder)

58: Vertigo (Alfred Hitchcock)

57: Wild Strawberries (Ingmar Bergman)

56: The Searchers (John Ford)

55: The Night of the Hunter (Charles Laughton)

54: The Seven Samurai (Akira Kurosawa)

53: From Here to Eternity (Fred Zinnemann)

52: Singin’ in the Rain (Stanley Donen/Gene Kelly)

51: A Streetcar Named Desire (Elia Kazan)

50: Sunset Boulevard (Billy Wilder)

49: The Third Man (Carol Reed)

48: The Bicycle Thief (Vittorio De Sica)

47: Beauty and the Beast (Jean Cocteau)

46: Notorious (Alfred Hitchcock)

45: Les Enfants Du Paradis (Marcel Carné)

44: Double Indemnity (Billy Wilder)

43: Heaven Can Wait (Ernst Lubitsch)

42: Casablanca (Michael Curtiz)

41: Citizen Kane (Orson Welles)

40: Fantasia (James Algar, Samuel Armstrong, Ford Beebe, Norm Ferguson, Jim Handley, T. Hee, Wilfred Jackson, Hamilton Luske, Bill Roberts and Paul Satterfield)

39: The Rules of the Game (Jean Renoir)

38: Bringing Up Baby (Howard Hawks)

37: Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs (Walt Disney and David Hand)

36: Modern Times (Charlie Chaplin)

35: The Bride of Frankenstein (James Whale)

34: It Happened One Night (Frank Capra)

33: King Kong (Merian Cooper and Ernest B Schoedsack)

32: Vampyr (Carl Theodor Dreyer)

31: City Lights (Charlie Chaplin)

30: Under the Rooftops of Paris (Rene Clair)

29: The Man with the Movie Camera (Dziga Vertov)

28: The Passion of Joan of Arc (Dreyer)

27: Metropolis (Fritz Lang)