Drama Series
24
Grey's Anatomy
House
The Sopranos
The West Wing
We can start off by cutting House and The Sopranos from the list-neither have the tapes to win. House got in on the strenght of one great episode, 'Autopsy', and they don't really have anything else to offer. The Sopranos just isn't what it used to be and this years half-season had it's moments but didn't really stand up. That leaves The West Wing looking to get it's fifth (that'd be a record) win and 24 and Grey's Anatomy, neither of which have won before. The latter two will battle it out with the edge going to Grey's. 24 is always at a disadvantage at the Emmys since the stand-alone episode system doesn't work given the show's premise (people who don't watch regularly will just be confused). That leaves that annoying super-hit to clean up the awards with it's hit status, media attention and tapes that scream Emmy (particularly the two-parter It's the End of the World...As We Know It). Meaning that, yet again, the Emmys will be a celebration of medioctity.
Will Win: Grey's Anatomy
Dark Horse: The West Wing
Should Win (out of the nominees) : 24
Should Win (overall): Battlestar Galactica
Comedy Series
Arrested Development
Curb Your Enthusiasm
The Office
Scrubs
Two and a Half Men
This is actually a pretty great lineup, save for the hideous Two and a Half Men. Who'll win? Nothing's written in stone but The Office is the only show currently at it's peak- the second season was golden and they really could've picked any 6 episodes from the season and still had great submissions. Tapes wise, they're in the lead but look out for the only traditional sitcom of the bunch, Two and a Half Men, to possibly upset.
Will Win: The Office
Dark Horse: Two and a Half Men
Should Win (out of the nominees) : The Office
Should Win (overall): The Office
Best Actor-Drama
Peter Krause in Six Feet Under
Denis Leary in Rescue Me
Christopher Meloni in Law and Order: SVU
Martin Sheen in The West Wing
Kiefer Sutherland in 24
I pretty much like this everyone this category, they've all been great at one point or another during the entire runs of their shows. Looking at the tapes it seems like Denis Leary's brilliant work on his show might just take the win. Which is wild since even his nomination wasn't a sure thing. His tape, the second season finale (which should air on AXN in the next few weeks), is everything an actor needs: big drama (his son is killed), range (he goes from grief to anger to quiet realisation) and empathy (the last scene is a killer). Sheen is the other popular choice for the win since, despite being the star of a show that's won 4 times and that has a cast that has together amassed 8 emmys in 5 years, he has never once won. I hope this won't happen since his placement here is ridiculous since he was hardly there this whole season.
Will Win: Denis Leary
Dark Horse: Martin Sheen and Peter Krause (I'm going out on a limb)
Should Win (out of the nominees) : Denis Leary
Should Win (overall): Michael C. Hall in Six Feet Under
Best Actress-Drama
Frances Conroy in Six Feet Under
Geena Davis in Commander in Chief
Mariska Hargitay in Law and Order: SVU
Allison Janney in The West Wing
Kyra Sedgwick in The Closer
This category blows chunks. Fucking big ass chunks. Geena Davis? Kyra Sedgwick? Hargitay? zzzzzzzz. I love Allison Janney but she's won FOUR of these...however, if anything holds true with the Emmys: If you've won once, you'll win again. My heart goes to Frances Conroy but her submission, the show's emotional series finale 'Everyone's Waiting', didn't really give the voters what they like. Janney seems like she's headed for the win yet again with a great tape in 'Institutional Memory'. Sedgwick could possibly upset in a situation quite like Patricia Arquette's surprise victory last year, since her show has ardent fans.
Will Win: Allison Janney
Dark Horse: Kyra Sedgwick
Should Win (out of the nominees) : Frances Conroy
Should Win (overall): Frances Conroy
Best Actor-Comedy
Steve Carrell in The Office
Larry David in Curb Your Enthusiasm
Kevin James in The King of Queens
Tony Shaloub in Monk
Charlie Sheen in Two and a Half Men
Shaloub is the only previous victor here, having won twice, so it's up to a newbie. There are only two good nominees here: Larry David playing himself and Steve Carrell rounding out a hell of a year. The noms for James and Sheen are big gaping holes of what the fuck. It seems like, by some fluke, the man who really deserves it will walk away with the win. Carrell probably should've submitted 'Booze Cruise' which gave his character some much-needed sympathy, but 'The Injury' where his character burns his foot on a George Forman grill is hilarious and will probably end up putting an Emmy in his hands.
Will Win: Steve Carrell
Dark Horse: Steve Carrell
Should Win (out of the nominees): Steve Carrell
Should Win (overall): Steve Carrell
Best Actress-Comedy
Stockard Channing in Out of Practice
Jane Kaczmerak in Malcolm in the Middle
Lisa Kudrow in The Comeback
Julia Louis-Dreyfus in The New Adventures of Old Christine
Debra Messing in Will and Grace
Another wtf lineup. Dreyfus is the only one of the five whose show returns for another season with both Malcolm and Will and Grace having given their swan songs and both and The Comeback and Out of Practice being put out of their own misery. Kaczmerak looks like she's finally set for the win after 6 straight losses in years before. Her submission, 'Lois Knows Best', is very well liked. So is Kudrow's, who gives a brilliant performance on a terrible show and is terrific in her tape, 'Valerie Does Another Classic Leno'. Watch out for her to sneak up behind Kaczmerak. That said, Kaczmerak is the only woman of the five to have never won an Emmy for anything which could very well help the sympathy votes usher in.
Will Win: Jane Kaczmerak
Dark Horse: Lisa Kudrow
Should Win (out of the nominees): Lisa Kudrow
Should Win (overall): MARY-LOUISE PARKER in WEEDS (!!!!!!!!!!)
Best Supporting Actor-Drama
Alan Alda in The West Wing
Michael Imperioli in The Sopranos
Gregory Itzin in 24
Oliver Platt in Huff
William Shatner in Boston Legal
First off, Imperioli and Platt are out. Past winner Imperioli didn't have much to do this year and Platt's show isn't well known and he doesn't really have the tapes. Of the other three, Alda could ride the coattails of a West Wing sweep but I feel the other two have a better chance. Itzin is downright chilling on 24 as President Logan-it is an electrifying performance that's reflected in the two episodes he submitted. His scene where he confronts his wife in the finale should get him an Emmy alone. But the emmys, for some unknown reason, have decided to honour Captain Kirk twice before for playing Denny Crane on Boston Legal, so who's to say they won't do it again?
Will Win: William Shatner/Alan Alda
Dark Horse: Gregory Itzin
Should Win (out of the nominees) : Gregory Itzin
Should Win (overall): Gregory Itzin
Best Supporting Actress-Drama
Candice Bergen in Boston Legal
Blythe Danner in Huff
Sandra Oh in Grey's Anatomy
Jean Smart in 24
Chandra Wilson in Grey's Anatomy
There's only one real standout in this lineup and that's Jean Smart who's five kinds of awesome as the First Lady on 24. Her tapes are pretty great but I fear that she doesn't have too much screentime in her first tape. Bergen has one good tape as does Globe winner Oh, but both of them don't have a killer second tape. Oh's co-star Chandra Wilson's tapes seem like winners. In her first tape she loses an old patient of hers and in the second gives birth while her husband lies on an operating table- tough stuff. Ultimately its a toss-up, and I'm going with...Wilson? Smart? Bergen? Oh?....Danner???
Will Win: Chandra Wilson
Dark Horse: Jean Smart or Sandra Oh
Should Win (out of the nominees) : Jean Smart
Should Win (overall): Jean Smart
Best Supporting Actor-Comedy
Will Arnett in Arrested Development
Bryan Cranston in Malcolm in the Middle
John Cryer in Two and a Half Men
Sean Hayes in Will and Grace
Jeremy Piven in Entourage
Let's get Arnett, Hayes and Cryer out of the way first. Arnett has one great tape and one that's so-so, so despite my absolute love for this nomination I'm going to pass on him. Hayes and Cryer's noms are horrible, as are they're tapes. The Piv is my pick of the year for his superlative performance as the agent Ari Gold, and both his tapes are killer. 'The Bat Mitzvah', where he balances being a father and an agent and 'Exodus', the best half-hour of comedy this year, where his plans to stage a coup at his agency go awry. I haven't seen Cranston's tapes but word is they should get him the emmy easily. Of these two men, I'll go with Cranston, since he and his show have passed their peak and I prefer Piven and if I've learned anything from watching the Emmy's those two are almost pre-requisites for winning an Emmy.
Will Win: Bryan Cranston/Jeremy Piven (Cranston's got the edge)
Dark Horse: Will Arnett
Should Win (out of the nominees) : Jeremy Piven
Should Win (overall): Jeremy Piven
Best Supporting Actress-Comedy
Cheryl Hines in Curb Your Enthusiasm
Megan Mullally in Will and Grace
Elizabeth Perkins in Weeds
Jaime Pressly in My Name is Earl
Alfre Woodard in Desperate Housewives
As long as the voters watch the tapes this race belongs to just one woman, Jaime Pressly. Pressly has managed to leave her Maxim model days behind and craft an inspird performance as Joy, Earl's trailer-trash ex-wife on My Name is Earl. My heart belongs to Elizabeth Perkin's lunatic bitch-fest on Weeds but she, like all the other nominees, seriously botched up her submission.
Will Win: Jaime Pressly
Dark Horse: Megan Mullally (due to sentiment)
Should Win (out of the nominees) : Elizabeth Perkins
Should Win (overall): Elizabeth Perkins
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